A new report from the World Stroke Organization has issued a stark warning, forecasting that strokes could cause nearly 10 million deaths annually by 2050 and cost up to $2 trillion per year, primarily affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
This report published by the Lancet Neurology Commission provides evidence-based recommendations to address the looming crisis by focusing on surveillance, prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation of strokes.
The analysis indicates that stroke deaths could increase by 50% by 2050, with 9.7 million deaths annually, and the associated costs could reach $2.3 trillion per year unless urgent action is taken. LMICs are set to bear the brunt of this burden.
Economic forecasting indicates the combined cost of stroke, including direct costs and loss of income, will rise from US$891 billion per year in 2017 to up to US $2.31 trillion in 2050. The bulk of these economic impacts are forecast to be felt in Asia and Africa.
Projections indicate large increases in direct costs and income losses from stroke in middle-income countries and increases in direct costs in HICs. They also forecast increased economic impacts in low-income countries, but their overall share in global costs is likely to remain small, given their overall low share in global population and stroke cases.
The Commission, composed of stroke experts and researchers, has made evidence-based recommendations to mitigate the growing impact of strokes. These include improving stroke surveillance, raising public awareness, enhancing acute stroke care services, and establishing low-cost surveillance systems.
The report underlines the importance of taking action to combat strokes, a highly preventable and treatable condition, and how implementing the Commission’s recommendations could significantly reduce the global stroke burden.
Professor Valery L. Feigin, Co-Chair of the Commission, emphasized the enormous toll of strokes on global populations and the urgent need for effective action. He highlighted the challenges of forecasting health and economic impacts for several decades due to the uncertainties involved.
The report notes that strokes have almost doubled worldwide in the past 30 years, with a predominant impact on LMICs where stroke prevalence is increasing faster than in high-income countries.
This trend poses a significant challenge to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, which aims to reduce premature deaths from non-communicable diseases, including stroke, by one third by 2030.
The forecasted economic impact of strokes is substantial, with costs projected to increase from $891 billion in 2020 to potentially $2.3 trillion in 2050, primarily in Asia and Africa. The report also recommends legislative regulations and taxation of unhealthy products to generate revenue for stroke prevention programs and services.
“One of the most common problems in implementing stroke prevention and care recommendations is the lack of funding. Our Commission recommends introducing legislative regulations and taxations of unhealthy products (such as salt, alcohol, sugary drinks, trans-fats) by each and every government in the world. Such taxation would not only reduce consumption of these products – and therefore lead to the reduction of burden from stroke and major other non-communicable diseases – but also generate a large revenue sufficient to fund not only prevention programmes and services for stroke and other major disorders, but also reduce poverty, inequality in health service provision, and improve wellbeing of the population,” said Prof. Feigin.
Professor Mayowa O. Owolabi, of the University of Ibadan, Nigeria and Commission co-chair said: “Investing in evidence-based measures to reduce the global burden of stroke will deliver benefits that go far beyond health alone. As well as delivering health and economic benefits relating to stroke, many of our recommendations would also facilitate reductions in poverty and inequality and boost local economies.”
He added, “Every member State of the United Nations has committed to meeting the SDGs but at present few countries are on target to achieve SDG 3.4. Stroke is countable, substantially preventable, treatable, and beatable through the pragmatic solutions recommended by this Commission across the four pillars of the stroke quadrangle (surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation). By implementing and monitoring all of the Commission’s recommendations, which have a firm evidence base, the global burden of stroke will be reduced drastically this decade and beyond. Not only will this enable us to meet SDG 3.4, as well as other key SDGs, it will improve brain healthand the overall wellbeing of millions of people across the globe now and beyond 2030.”
The Commission’s evidence-based recommendations offer hope for reducing the global burden of strokes, not only improving health but also addressing poverty and inequality while boosting local economies. Professor Mayowa O. Owolabi, Co-Chair of the Commission, stressed the importance of these measures in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals and improving global well-being.
Professor Sheila Martins, President of the World Stroke Organization, urged immediate action, emphasizing the catastrophic gaps in stroke services worldwide. She pledged the organization’s commitment to supporting the global implementation of the Commission’s recommendations to enhance stroke prevention and care services.
“The gaps in stroke services across the world are catastrophic. We need a drastic improvement today, not in 10 years. World Stroke Organization is committed to support and to accelerate the implementation of these recommendations globally through the WSO Implementation Task Force, with stroke experts to advise the establishment of stroke prevention and care and to contribute with educational programs, and through the Global Stroke Alliance meetings rotating in the world facilitating the discussions between stroke experts and policy makers, giving the technical support to the governments to elaborate national plans for stroke and to include stroke care in the Universal Health Coverage packages,” she said
This report serves as a call to action to address the impending stroke crisis and offers a roadmap for reducing its global impact through practical and evidence-based solutions.