Eight billion people are at risk because of the leaders’ lack of preparation for pandemic threats, according to the former Co-Chairs of The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response.
H5N1 avian influenza is causing a surge in mammal populations and new human infections, while mpox is killing children.
Of those DRC deaths from mpox, children under the age of fifteen account for 85% of the deaths.
“In 2024, for everyone who survived COVID-19, a pandemic is a lived experience and not a theoretical threat,” said Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
“Instead of taking action to prepare for the next major outbreak, leaders have turned away from pandemic preparedness. This is a gamble with our futures.”
President Sirleaf noted with alarm the number of child deaths occurring as a result of a more dangerous strain of mpox, a dearth of diagnostic testing, and the fact that while vaccines exist, they are not yet available where children are dying.
In their new report, No Time to Gamble: Leaders Must Unite to Prevent Pandemics, the former Co-Chairs take stock of progress against the package of recommendations The Independent Panel made to the World Health Assembly in May 2021 following its eight-month review of the response to COVID-19.
“We were clear in 2021 at the height of COVID-19, that leaders needed to act urgently to make transformative change to the international system, so that there would be a new approach to funding, new ways of managing equitable access to products like vaccines and tests, and a new Framework Convention to complement the rules for outbreaks and pandemics,” said the Right Honourable Helen Clark at an event to release the report hosted by Club de Madrid.
“Instead, the funds now available pale in comparison to the needs, and high-income countries are holding on too tightly to traditional charity-based approaches to equity. The pandemic agreement is vital and must succeed but has yet to be agreed. In short, if there were a pandemic threat today – such as if H5N1 began to spread from person to person – the world would likely again be overwhelmed.”
“We really can’t have a conversation about the world abandoning us. Perhaps we are the ones in our communities who are leaving the least behind,” said Alakija Ayoade a humanitarian leader and expert in pandemic preparedness, global health security, and diplomacy. “Global leaders, whether they are champions or not, must come together. We must support the pandemic agreement. We must support global governance and strive for dynamic readiness rather than merely readiness,” said Ayoade.
“We require leaders who are ready to take charge. In that very moment. Let’s get a handle on this if it is in sight,” said Clark. She said this could require the formation of a champions group to take action because pandemics affect all of us. “Their immediate purpose seems extremely clear and urgent to me. Encourage the negotiations for a pandemic agreement to conclude successfully.”
Some cause for hope
The report also points to progress. The 77th World Health Assembly agreement to amend the International Health Regulations (IHR) can result in faster information-sharing from countries and from WHO, more transparent processes in deciding a public health emergency of international concern, and a definition of a pandemic emergency, which was not codified before.
Other progress includes WHO Member States’ decision in 2023 to increase the proportion of unearmarked funding to WHO’s base budget, giving the organization more independence in allocation of funds.
However, the Co-Chairs also warn that WHO may be spending too much on the operational side of health emergencies including on delivery of supplies, when it should focus attention on excellence in normative and technical support. Given the attention both emergencies and technical excellence require, the report suggests WHO Member States consider whether WHO should be split into two entities so that emergency operations do not overwhelm the normative work.
Are countries prepared?
The Co-Chairs also underscore that it’s impossible to know if countries are prepared for a pandemic, based on the current assessment tools and metrics. The report shows that while voluntary self- assessments reached a record high in 2023, the infrequency of joint external evaluations, lack of visibility on national plans, and limitations on the types of information being collected provide only a patchwork picture of country preparedness.
Start by addressing these seven areas to contribute to changing the future.
The study outlines the various actions that need to be implemented in order to put the Independent Panel’s package of recommendations into practice and protect the globe against pandemic dangers. The following should be prioritised by governments, international financial institutions, regional and international organisations, and the World Health Organisation:
Pandemic regulations: In order to advance the pandemic agreement, WHO Member States are required to establish new methods of operation by July. Incorporating civic society and independent experts into new modalities is crucial. By December 2024, the pandemic agreement ought to be ratified.
The revised International Health Regulations should be implemented by Member States and WHO right away, and they should get ready to take effect in June 2025.
Multidisciplinary Guidance: During the UN General Assembly in September: It is recommended that a new Champions Group to Prevent Pandemics be formed, with both current and former leaders participating. As part of the Pact for the Future, the UNGA must establish a new Emergency Platform for complex global shocks at the Summit of the Future in September. The platform ought to grow to include emergency preparedness.
It is recommended that a new Champions Group to Prevent Pandemics be formed, with both current and former leaders participating. As part of the Pact for the Future, the UNGA must establish a new Emergency Platform for complex global shocks at the Summit of the Future in September. It is time to add emergency preparedness to the platform.
Accountability: Either a new, independent PPR monitoring board akin to the IPCC should be established, or the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board should become completely independent and be detached from the World Health Organisation in October. An implementation and compliance mechanism needs to be part of the pandemic agreement.
Finance: A successful round of non-ODA fund pledges should be completed by the Pandemic Fund before of the G20 meeting in November. The G20 ought to devise strategies for transforming The Pandemic Fund into a readiness
Finance: A successful round of non-ODA fund pledges should be completed by the Pandemic Fund before of the G20 meeting in November. The G20 should announce intentions to transform The Pandemic Fund into a worldwide public investment model-based readiness and surge mechanism.
Equitable Medical Countermeasures: Brazil, South Africa, and other middle-income nations should stress at the G20 this year and next that, in order to prevent outbreaks, medical countermeasures must be managed as part of the global commons, and that the charitable model of accessing them must give way to one based on regional resilience, knowledge creation, and technology sharing.
A more autonomous and credible WHO: Member states have to reaffirm their commitment to unearmarked money and meet milestones for the WHO’s investment round at the G20 in November.
The report underscores that there is about a fifty per cent chance that the world could face another pandemic threat on the same scale as COVID-19 in the next 25 years, making it even more important to invest in preparedness now.
“There were lessons to be learned from Ebola in West Africa,” said Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. “Just five years later, having not applied those lessons, there were lessons to be learned again from COVID-19. There is no need to keep learning. Instead of gambling, leaders can make practical decisions and apply those lessons. Why would they make any other choice?”