If global HIV targets are not met, there could be nearly 35 million new HIV acquisitions and nearly 18 million AIDS-related deaths between 2021 and 2050, according to a new analysis.
A study, presented by UNAIDS economist Erik Lamontagne, estimates the human and economic cost of failing to meet “95-95-95” targets in 114 countries. These targets are achieved when 95% of people who are living with HIV know their HIV status, 95% of people who know that they are living with HIV are on antiretroviral treatment, and 95% of people who are on treatment are virally suppressed.
The study team compares the incremental costs, benefits, and economic returns of a scenario that fulfills the 95-95-95 targets to a “business-as-usual” scenario maintaining coverage of HIV-related services at 2020 levels every year until 2050.
The analysis finds that failing to meet global targets would entail tremendous human and economic consequences. The human cost would include an estimated 34.9 million new HIV acquisitions and 17.7 million AIDS-related deaths between 2021 and 2050. The economic cost would be an estimated USD 8,291 per person among all low- and middle-income countries by 2050, with an average cost of inaction per capita of USD 670.
“The world is at a critical juncture in the response to HIV. This study reminds us just how much is at stake if we fail to act, and what can be achieved if we act now,” Lewin says.